Bayesian nonparametric inference for panel count data with an informative observation process

In this paper, the panel count data analysis for recurrent events is considered. Such analysis is useful for studying tumor or infection recurrences in both clinical trial and observational studies. A bivariate Gaussian Cox process model is proposed to jointly model the observation process and the recurrent event process. Bayesian nonparametric inference is proposed for simultaneously estimating regression parameters, bivariate frailty effects, and baseline intensity functions. Inference is done through Markov chain Monte Carlo, with fully developed computational techniques. Predictive inference is also discussed under the Bayesian setting. The proposed method is shown to be efficient via simulation studies. A clinical trial dataset on skin cancer patients is analyzed to illustrate the proposed approach.     

Saroglitazar is noninferior to fenofibrate in reducing triglyceride levels in hypertriglyceridemic patients in a randomized clinical trial

Saroglitazar, being a dual PPAR-α/γ agonist, has shown beneficial effect in diabetic dyslipidemia and hypertriglyceridemia. Fibrates are commonly used to treat severe hypertriglyceridemia. However, the effect of saroglitazar in patients with moderate to severe hypertriglyceridemia was not evaluated. We conducted a study to compare the efficacy and safety of saroglitazar (4 mg) with fenofibrate (160 mg) in patients with moderate to severe hypertriglyceridemia. This was a multicenter, randomized, double-blinded, double-dummy, active-control, and noninferiority trial in adult patients with fasting triglyceride (TG) levels of 500–1,500 mg/dl. The patients were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to receive daily dose of saroglitazar or fenofibrate for 12 weeks. The primary efficacy end point was the percent change in TG levels at week 12 relative to baseline. The study comprised of 41 patients in the saroglitazar group and 41 patients in the fenofibrate group. We found that the percent reduction from baseline in TG levels at week 12 was significantly higher in the saroglitazar group (least square mean = ?55.3%; SE = 4.9) compared with the fenofibrate group (least square mean = ?41.1%; SE = 4.9; P = 0.048). Overall, 37 treatment-emergent adverse events (AEs) were reported in 24 patients (saroglitazar: 13; fenofibrate: 11). No serious AEs were reported, and no patient discontinued the study because of AEs. We conclude that saroglitazar (4 mg) is noninferior to fenofibrate (160 mg) in reducing TG levels after 12 weeks of treatment, was safe, and well tolerated.     

An Extreme Value Analysis of Pollutant Concentrations in Surface Soils Due to Atmospheric Deposition

Risk assessments often rely on deterministic models using long-term averages or “steady-state” values of input variables. Such models do not provide the information needed to estimate acute exposures. This study uses extreme value theory to examine the frequency and magnitude of daily pollutant concentrations in surface soils predicted at six U.S. locations. Concentrations are predicted using a deposition-leaching model and 50 years of historical precipitation data. A stochastic model also is used to generate 1000 years of precipitation data as modeling inputs for each location. The annual maximum concentrations at each site are fitted to a Gumbel type I distribution to estimate occurrence probability. For soluble pollutants, the predicted concentration varied substantially with precipitation, and the maximum daily concentrations exceeded annual averages by 4 to 8 times. Observed and synthetic precipitation data produced similar results at most study locations, though the synthetic data provided a slightly better fit to the Gumbel type I distribution. The precipitation model allows the generation of representative precipitation data that extend limited historical records. The extreme value analysis facilitates the evaluation of maximum pollutant concentrations, return periods, and other statistics that are important in evaluating acute exposures.     

Apparent survival of tropical birds in a wet,premontane forest in Costa Rica

Despite the importance of tropical birds in the development of life history theory, we lack information about demographic rates and drivers of population dynamics for most species. We used a 7‐year (2007–2013) capture‐mark‐recapture dataset from an exceptionally wet premontane forest at mid‐elevation in Costa Rica to estimate apparent survival for seven species of tropical passerines. For four of these species, we provide the first published demographic parameters. Recapture probabilities ranged from 0.21 to 0.53, and annual estimates of apparent survival varied from 0.23 to 1.00. We also assessed the consequences of inter‐annual variation in rainfall on demographic rates. Our results are consistent with inter‐annual rainfall increasing estimates of apparent survival for two species and decreasing estimates for three species. For the three species where we could compare our estimates of apparent survival to estimates from drier regions, our estimates were not consistently higher or lower than those published previously. The temporal and spatial variability in demographic rates we document within and among species highlights the difficulties of generalizing life history characteristics across broad biogeographic gradients. Most importantly, this work emphasizes the context‐specific role of precipitation in shaping tropical avian demographic rates and underscores the need for mechanistic studies of environmental drivers of tropical life histories.     

Rainfall and parasitic wasp (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonoidea) activity in successional forest stages at Barro Colorado Nature Monument, Panama, and La Selva Biological Station, Costa Rica

1 In 1997, we ran two Malaise insect traps in each of four stands of wet forest in Costa Rica (two old‐growth and two 20‐year‐old stands) and four stands of moist forest in Panama (old‐growth, 20, 40 and 120‐year‐old stands). 2 Wet forest traps caught 2.32 times as many ichneumonoids as moist forest traps. The average catch per old‐growth trap was 1.89 times greater than the average catch per second‐growth trap. 3 Parasitoids of lepidopteran larvae were caught in higher proportions in the wet forest, while pupal parasitoids were relatively more active in the moist forest. 4 We hypothesize that moisture availability is of key importance in determining parasitoid activity, community composition and trophic interactions.     

Downstream protein separation by surfactant precipitation: a review

In a conventional protein downstream processing (DSP) scheme, chromatography is the single most expensive step. Despite being highly effective, it often has a low process throughput due to its semibatch nature, sometimes with nonreproducible results and relatively complex process development. Hence, more work is required to develop alternative purification methods that are more cost-effective, but exhibiting nearly comparable performance. In recent years, surfactant precipitation has been heralded as a promising new method for primary protein recovery that meets these criteria and is a simple and cost-effective method that purifies and concentrates. The method requires the direct addition of a surfactant to a complex solution (e.g. a fermentation broth) containing the protein of interest, where the final surfactant concentration is maintained below its critical micelle concentration (CMC) in order to allow for electrostatic and hydrophobic interactions between the surfactant and the target protein. An insoluble (hydrophobic) protein–surfactant complex is formed and backextraction of the target protein from the precipitate into a new aqueous phase is then carried out using either solvent extraction, or addition of a counter-ionic surfactant. Importantly, as highlighted by past researchers, the recovered proteins maintain their activity and structural integrity, as determined by circular dichroism (CD). In this review, various aspects of surfactant precipitation with respect to its general methodology and process mechanism, system parameters influencing performance, protein recovery, process selectivity and process advantages will be highlighted. Moreover, comparisons will be made to reverse micellar extraction, and the current drawbacks/challenges of surfactant precipitation will also be discussed. Finally, promising directions of future work with this separation technique will be highlighted.     

A rapid altitudinal range expansion in the pine processionary moth produced by the 2003 climatic anomaly

Climatic anomalies may produce, or accelerate, geographic range expansions of species limited by temperature or other climatic variables. Most such expansions are only temporary, before the prevailing climatic conditions drive the founder populations extinct. In contrast, here, we report a recent rapid shift of the range limit during the record hot summer of 2003 in southern Europe that has the potential to be both permanent, and to have important implications on species range dynamics in general. The winter pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa), an important pine defoliator whose larvae feed in colonies during the winter, is limited in its distribution by winter temperatures. In the last three decades, warmer winters have led to a gradual but substantial expansion of its range both latitudinally and altitudinally. In the summer of 2003, T. pityocampa underwent an extraordinary expansion to high elevation pine stands in the Italian Alps; its altitudinal range limit increased by one third of the total altitudinal expansion over the previous three decades. In an experiment, we found flight activity of newly emerged females to increase with temperature. By determining a threshold temperature for flight take‐offs under controlled conditions, we calculated that the nights above the threshold temperature were over five times more frequent, and considerably warmer, at the range limit in 2003 than in an average year. We therefore attribute the colonization of extreme, high‐elevation sites to increased nocturnal dispersal of females during the unusually warm night temperatures in June – August 2003. Importantly, the colonies established at extreme sites survived the winter and produced offspring in 2004, although the range did not expand further because of low night temperatures that year. We discuss several life‐history characteristics of T. pityocampa that maximize the likelihood of population persistence at the new range limit. As global warming continues and climatic anomalies are predicted to become more frequent, our results draw attention to the importance of extreme climatic events in the range formation of phytophagous insects.     

The role of cyanobacteria in crystallization of magnesium calcites

Laboratory experiments showed the effect of the cyanobacterium Microcoleus chthonoplastes on the formation of magnesium calcites, using model solutions (2.14M MgCl₂-0.05M CaCl₂-0.6M NaCl-0.18M NaHCO₃). The conditions of existence of cyanobacteria in such solutions in light or darkness significantly alter the structure of the sediment and the shape and size of the carbonate crystals. Cyanobacteria slow down crystallization due to the formation of exometabolites with a chelating effect, which leads to the precipitation of high-magnesium calcites. In the photosynthetic environment the presence of huntite (CaMg₃(CO₃)₄), possible forerunner of dolomite, is prominent.